Frank Schwab Senior writer Mon, October 19, 2026 at 4:09 PM UTC · 4 min read About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement As we found out in Week 6, and see pretty much every week in the NFL, being expected to win doesn't mean too much.
Teams like the Los Angeles Rams and Indianapolis Colts lost as significant favorites on Sunday, and perhaps that's a warning for the San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers are 5-0. They and the Kansas City Chiefs are the only undefeated teams in the NFL. The 49ers face a Washington Commanders team that's 1-3-1 and coming off an embarrassing time-management debacle that cost them a chance to beat the New York Giants in overtime.
And that's the type of mismatch that we often see lead to a surprise outcome.
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The Commanders can be dangerous. They have a win over the Seahawks already. Jayden Daniels is back and healthy, and showed his playmaking skills with two long rushing touchdowns last week. Just because the Commanders have just one win doesn't mean they're not capable.
The 49ers are tough to beat, however. Brock Purdy has 13 passing touchdowns, which led the NFL after five weeks, and is in the early conversation for MVP. The offense as a whole has been fantastic early on, with new addition at receiver Mike Evans making a big impact already, and the defense has been a pleasant surprise. The defense ranked third in points allowed heading into this week. The 49ers have dealt with many injuries — they're especially thin at receiver with Deebo Samuel suffering a hamstring injury last week — but it hasn't stopped them.
The Commanders have a big challenge ahead to beat the 49ers on the road. But as we found out Sunday, it's a mistake to discount any team in the NFL.
49ers running back Christian McCaffrey celebrates a touchdown, one of his five scores this season.
The 49ers have already had a good Week 6. The Seahawks lost to the Broncos on Thursday night, then the Rams fell to 2-4 with a loss to the Cardinals. The 49ers would love to extend their lead in the NFC West but a loss wouldn't be too ruinous. The Commanders got off to a slow start this season and now need to steal a game or two in order to get back in the race in a soft NFC East. An upset win by the Commanders would put them only one game behind the Giants for first place. Washington needs it much more.
The last off-ball linebacker to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year was Luke Kuechly in 2013. Before Kuechly, the last winner was Brian Urlacher in 2005. It won't be easy for Warner to win DPOY, but he'll have a case. Warner already has 50 tackles and leads the NFL with three forced fumbles. His Pro Football Focus grade is second among all inside linebackers (Jacksonville's Ventrell Miller is first). Warner's impact on the 49ers' defense is undeniable. San Francisco was fourth in defensive DVOA through five weeks and that is with Nick Bosa missing most of the season so far due to injury (Bosa will be out on Monday night as well). Warner will be instrumental in limiting the Commanders' offensive attack.
The 49ers (-7.5) are healthy home favorites against the Commanders. Washington has spent all week dissecting and explaining what in the world went wrong at the end of a 27-27 tie against the New York Giants last week. After their Week 1 game in Australia, the 49ers haven't had to leave the West Coast (three straight home games and a trip to Seattle), so they'll certainly have the travel advantage. Mike Evans (questionable) is a big potential missing piece, but right now the 49ers (2-1 ATS at home) are playing too well and something tells me Washington hasn't healed from last week. The Commanders have allowed TDs on a league-worst 83.3% of red zone drives; the 49ers lead the NFL by scoring TDs on 87.5% of red zone drives. That's a bad combination for the Commanders' chances. — Ben Fawkes
Check out more of Ben's work at the Yahoo Sports betting hub .
It's fantasy's last call as the Niners and Commanders close out Week 6. Here are three themes to track from a fantasy perspective.
1. Can the Commanders cobble together a running game? With Jacory Croskey-Merritt unavailable, Washington will need to get creative — or perhaps junk the running game entirely. Rachaad White and Austin Ekeler will get the first chances.
2. How do the 49ers work with or without Mike Evans? The estimable veteran didn't practice all week and really hasn't been 100 percent all year. It hasn't stopped him from being a fantasy star. We love QB Brock Purdy and play-calling genius Kyle Shanahan, but the Niners need to find solutions with a compromised Evans — or possibly without him.
3. How much will Jayden Daniels run? The third-year pro was not shy about scrambling last week, racking up 103 yards on the ground. He needs to be athletic and creative to play his best, but it also makes you worry, given his injury history. — Scott Pianowski
Check out more of Scott's work at the Yahoo Sports fantasy hub .
Source: Sports
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